Research on Population Size Prediction of Towns and Villages: A Case Study of Zhongxin Town in Guangzhou
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摘要: 伴随着城镇化和乡村振兴进程,镇村地区的发展已步入新阶段。人口规模预测作为镇村发展与规划研究的重要内容,却长期面临方法不清晰、模型单一等问题。本文在梳理传统方法的基础上,结合广东省广州市增城区中新镇的发展特征,选取多元回归分析、发展潜力评价等办法,尝试构建镇村人口规模的分级预测模型。研究表明: (1)分级的预测方法在镇村地区具有较高适用性,把握镇域人口增长趋势的同时还能反映各行政村的发展潜力,分级的指标体系也能形成镇、村差异化的指引;(2)结合主客观赋权的多元回归预测模型能全面分析镇域人口的走势,通过指标的权重差异判别其对人口规模的影响;(3)潜力评价与分配的预测模型能衡量各村的各维度增长潜质,并在镇域人口规模的约束下形成合理的分配结果。Abstract: Along with the process of urbanization and rural revitalization, the development of town and village areas has entered a new stage. However, population size prediction, as an important process of town and village areas development and planning research, has long faced problems such as unclear methods and monotonous models. Thus, based on a revisit of the traditional methods, this paper attempts to construct a hierarchical population size prediction method of towns and villages by virtue of analyzing the development characteristics of Zhongxin Town with the method of multiple regression analyze and population size growing potential evaluation. This study shows that: (1) The hierarchical prediction method is highly applicable in the population size prediction process of towns and villages, which has the capability of reflecting both the population size growth trends in Zhongxin Town and the population size growing potential of each administrative village. Meanwhile, the hierarchical index system can also form differentiated guidelines in towns and villages. (2) The multiple regression prediction model combined with subjective and objective empowering can provide a comprehensive analysis on the growing trends of population size in Zhongxin Town, which is able to discern the impact on population size through the different weights of the indicators. (3) The prediction model of potential evaluation and population size distribution can measure the growth potential of each dimension in each village which can form reasonable distribution results under the constraints of town's population size.
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