Influencing Factors of Residence Intention of Rural Migrant Population Based on Family Considerations
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摘要: 基于农业转移人口家庭化迁移趋势,针对现有农业转移人口居留意愿研究对居留分类较为笼统、大样本分析缺少家庭视角的问题,本研究借助2017年的全国流动人口动态监测数据,采用多分类Logistic模型,综合考虑家庭因素、介入因素、流入地因素和流出地因素的影响,研究以家庭为单位的农业转移人口短期居留、长期居留和定居三类不同居留意愿的影响因素。结果表明: (1)在家庭因素中,经济条件和儿童抚养需求是居留意愿的基础,家庭规模越大,越难以做出短期居留和定居决策;(2)介入因素方面,就近的梯度迁移更有利于长期居留和定居,迁移时间、城市规模差和家庭同住比的提升有助于长期居留和定居意愿提高;(3)流入地的城市规模、公共服务和社会融入都是定居的重要影响因素;(4)在流出地拥有宅基地和承包地等资产及家人留守倾向于阶段性居留。Abstract: Under the trend of family migration, the existing research on residence intention of rural migrant is usually a binary classification of yes or no, and the big-sample analysis lacks family considerations. This paper studies the influencing factors of three different decision of rural migrant population: short-term residence, longterm residence and settlement, comprehensively consider the family factors, intervening factors, inflow factors and outflow factors, by using the Multinomial Logistic Regression, with data from China Migrants Dynamic Survey 2017 of the floating population. The results show that: (1) Among family factors, economic conditions and child support needs are the basis of residence decision making. The larger the family size, the more difficult it is to make shortterm residence or settlement decision. (2) In terms of intervening factors, the nearby gradient migration is more conductive to long-term residence and settlement. The accumulation of migration time, the gap of city scale between the inflow and outflow cities and the improvement of family members living together ratio contribute to the longterm residence and settlement willingness. (3) The size of cites, public services and social integration are all important factors affecting settlement. (4) The rural migrant with assets such as homestead and contracted land, and family members tend to stay in the city temporarily.
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Key words:
- rural migrant population /
- family migration /
- residence intention /
- influence factor
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