The Farming Households' Willingness to Participate in the ‘Three Changes’ Reform and its Influencing Factors: A Case Study of S Village in Gansu Province
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摘要: 乡村振兴战略下农村“三变”改革被寄予厚望,但关注农户这一重要主体参与意愿的研究却较少。本研究以甘肃省S村为例,运用参与式农村评估方法(Participatory Rural Appraisal,PRA),基于可持续生计框架分析了生计资本和风险感知对农户“三变”改革参与意愿变化的影响。结果表明,总体上农户对“三变”改革实际效果不够满意,超过50%的农户产生悔意,参与积极性大幅下降,生计状况未发生显著改善,机会成本和信息风险高是主要原因。人力资本、自然资本和信息风险对农户的参股意愿变化具有显著影响,人力资本水平越高,自然资本(耕地)存量越多,信息风险感知越强烈,农户后悔的概率就越大。一地“三变”改革成效如何,是具有高价值沉睡资源、转变原有生产—经营—市场条件、价值增值过程清晰稳定等要素联合作用的结果,需要秉承循序渐进的原则,更多由市场来决定哪些地方、哪些产业条件成熟可以推行。集聚提升类村庄较城郊融合类和特色保护类基础条件相对薄弱,更需慎重评估可行性来稳妥推进。Abstract: Three changes' reform is expected to play a major role in the rural revitalization strategy, but few studies have focused on the farmers' willingness to participate. In this case study of S Village in Gansu Province, based on the Sustainable Livelihood Approach (SLA) and Participatory Rural Appraisal (PRA), the author analyzed the impact of livelihood capital and risk perception on the farmers' willingness to participate in the ‘three changes’ reform. The results show that, on the whole, farmers are not satisfied with the actual effects of the ‘three changes’ reform, and their enthusiasm has dropped sharply, since more than 50% of households regret their participation. The main reasons are less improved livelihoods, high opportunity costs and perceived information risk. Human capital, natural capital and information risk have a significant impact on the changes of farmers' willingness to participate. Specifically, households with higher human capital, more natural capital (i.e. arable land), and stronger perception of information risk tend to regret. Besides, in places where the ‘sleeping’ high-value resources can be explored clearly and stably by the transformation of original production and operation management, the ‘three changes’ reform can achieve success more easily. This suggests that the market can play a more important role to choose a suitable place. In particular, the ‘three changes’ reform must be implemented more cautiously in the agglomerated villages than in the suburban and the characteristic ones, where the location, resource characteristics and integration of three industries are better.
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