A Simulation Study of Spatial Expansion in Industry-led Villages and Towns Based on SLEUTH Model
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摘要:
本文基于SLEUTH模型，运用场景分析，通过采集遥感数据与网络开放数据对以产业主导的半城镇化地区的村镇空间扩展进行模拟研究。以广东省汕头市澄海区为例，基于1988、1999、2010和2016年四个时段的Landsat遥感影像数据，以及历年的企业数据，模拟对比了只基于传统村镇空间数据的村镇空间扩展与加入了产业因素的村镇空间扩展。同时，对比了不同企业规模情景下的村镇空间扩展变化。研究表明，在与实际历史数据校核后，加入了产业要素的村镇空间扩展模拟结果的精度要优于只基于传统村镇空间数据的结果，因为前者的精校准和终校准阶段Lee-Sallee指数及Compare指数都较高。由此可见，加入产业因素的村镇扩展模拟结果能够更加准确地反映出半城镇化地区村镇的实际发展情况。在考虑不同企业规模时，加入小型企业的村镇空间模拟精度最低，而加入大型企业的村镇空间模拟精度指数最高。大型企业对于村镇的空间扩展影响力最强，而中、小型企业的影响力逐渐降低。通过将SLEUTH模型引入到半城镇化地区村镇空间扩展模拟研究中，能够丰富以产业主导的村镇空间扩展模拟研究。
Abstract:Based on the SLEUTH model, this paper uses scenario analysis to simulate the spatial expansion of industry-led villages and towns in semi-urbanization areas by collecting remote sensing data and network open data. Taking Chenghai District of Shantou City, Guangdong Province as an example, based on Landsat remote sensing image data from four time periods, including 1988, 1999, 2010 and 2016, as well as enterprise-related data, the study simulates and predicts the spatial expansion of villages and towns with the industrial space layer. At the same time, the spatial growth accuracy changes under different enterprise scale scenarios are compared. The results show that the accuracy of spatial expansion simulation based on industrial factors is better than that based on traditional spatial data. Because both the lee-Sallee index in fine calibration and final calibration of the former model are higher than those of the latter, and the compare index of the former is also higher. It can be seen that the simulation results of village expansion with industrial factors can more accurately reflect the actual development of villages and towns in semi-urbanization areas. When considering different enterprise sizes, the lee-Sallee index of towns and villages with small enterprises was the lowest, while the lee-Sallee index of towns and villages with large enterprises was the highest. Large enterprises have the strongest influence on the spatial expansion of villages and towns, while the influence of medium and small enterprises gradually decreases. By introducing SLEUTH model into the simulation study of spatial expansion of villages and towns in semi-urbanization area, it can enrich the simulation study of spatial expansion of villages and towns dominated by industry.
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