Abstract:
Along with the process of urbanization and rural revitalization, the development of town and village areas has entered a new stage. However, population size prediction, as an important process of town and village areas development and planning research, has long faced problems such as unclear methods and monotonous models. Thus, based on a revisit of the traditional methods, this paper attempts to construct a hierarchical population size prediction method of towns and villages by virtue of analyzing the development characteristics of Zhongxin Town with the method of multiple regression analyze and population size growing potential evaluation. This study shows that: (1) The hierarchical prediction method is highly applicable in the population size prediction process of towns and villages, which has the capability of reflecting both the population size growth trends in Zhongxin Town and the population size growing potential of each administrative village. Meanwhile, the hierarchical index system can also form differentiated guidelines in towns and villages. (2) The multiple regression prediction model combined with subjective and objective empowering can provide a comprehensive analysis on the growing trends of population size in Zhongxin Town, which is able to discern the impact on population size through the different weights of the indicators. (3) The prediction model of potential evaluation and population size distribution can measure the growth potential of each dimension in each village which can form reasonable distribution results under the constraints of town's population size.