Abstract: This paper investigates the development of biomass energy within a study area, aiming to explore how changes in population scale affect the suitability of biomass energy development in villages and towns. The analysis is conducted by predicting the development trend of the total population and electricity consumption in the study area, and by establishing a biomass potential profit and loss model. Taking rural areas in western Guangdong as the research object, this study employs three different population prediction models: the growth rate method, trend extrapolation method, and gray prediction method, to forecast the population change trend in the study area over the next decade. The electricity demand trend is obtained by combining the calculated annual per capita electricity consumption. We determine the quantity of straw resources and the theoretical power generation potential of regional biomass based on the crop yields in Maoming, Zhanjiang, and Yangjiang, as well as the collectable coefficient and corresponding calorific value of straw in Guangdong Province. Using Origin software, we conduct polynomial fitting analysis on historical population data and make trend extrapolation predictions. The results indicate that in the short term, the total population in the study area will maintain a stable declining trend. The total amount of crop straw resources in western Guangdong is approximately 120,522.6 tons, and the total biomass theoretical power generation potential is 305 million MWh. The research findings reveal that despite a significant downward trend in the total population and electricity consumption of villages and towns in western Guangdong, the goal of 100% biomass energy supply will not be fully realized before 2030. Among these areas, the biomass energy supply in Maonan District of Maoming City is expected to reach 40%~60%, with surplus energy demand potentially met by a combination of other renewable and traditional energy sources.