Abstract: Urban shrinkage is a complex, multidimensional socio-economic phenomenon that encompasses various facets, including population size, economic development, shifts in social structure, and environmental sustainability. Against this backdrop, the article utilizes data from the Seventh National Population Census, adopting a 10-year period as the sample cycle and employing data from 2011 to 2020 as the research foundation. It selects 38 county-level cities in Jilin Province as the research subjects and constructs a comprehensive indicator evaluation system that spans economic, social, and demographic dimensions. By employing a double-hurdle model, it examines the influencing factors of urban shrinkage from seven perspectives: population structure, industrial structure, consumption capacity, social security, and others. Through a multidimensional identification of county-level urban shrinkage and an analysis using the double-hurdle model, the study accurately delineates the types, scope, and degree of county-level urban shrinkage, thereby providing a research basis for understanding urban shrinkage in the countylevel cities of Jilin Province. Furthermore, it proposes strategies for optimizing urban development space and actively addressing urban shrinkage, taking into account the factors that influence it.