Research on Operation and Maintenance Effect Evaluation of Green Livable Village Construction Project Based on Double Reference Points
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摘要: 项目运维效果评价是检验建设成果并促进项目实现目标的重要一环。文章针对绿色宜居村镇建设项目运维效果评价依据固化且忽略管理者主观价值感受的问题，提出基于双循环项目学习理论和前景理论，构建包含决策目标和动态目标的双参照点项目运维效果评价模型。首先根据项目特点运用扎根理论建立评价指标体系；然后在以决策目标为参照点的基础上，结合灰色预测模型和项目管理者的预期判断，设置反映动态目标的现实参照点，并依据价值函数计算项目运维效果综合前景值；最后选取典型绿色宜居村镇建设项目进行实证分析。实证结果显示：按双参照点前景理论进行项目效果评价更能反映其实际运维情况，同时也能刻画管理者对项目表现的价值感知，验证了模型的有效性。Abstract: The evaluation of project operation and maintenance effect is an important part of verifying the construction results and promoting the realization of project goals. Aiming at the problem that the evaluation basis of operation and maintenance effect of green livable village construction project is fixed and the subjective value perception of managers is ignored, this paper proposes a double reference point project operation and maintenance effect evaluation model based on double-loop project learning theory and prospect theory, which includes decisionmaking goal and dynamic goal. Firstly, based on the characteristics of the project, the evaluation index system is established by using grounded theory. Then, based on the decision goal as the reference point, the realistic reference point reflecting the dynamic goal is set by combining the grey prediction model and the project manager's expected judgment, and the comprehensive prospect value of the project operation and maintenance effect is calculated according to the value function. Finally, a typical green and livable village construction project is selected for empirical analysis. The empirical results show that the project effect evaluation based on the dual-reference point prospect theory can better reflect the actual operation and maintenance situation, and describe the value perception of managers on the project performance, which verifies the effectiveness of the model.
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