近20年来我国人口流动的城乡空间格局演化、机制解释及议题展望

Evolution of Urban-rural Spatial Patterns in China’s Population Mobility over the Past Two Decades:Mechanisms and Future Research Agenda

  • 摘要: 随着“就地城镇化”“县域城镇化”等新趋势和新政策命题的出现,对2000—2020年我国城乡人口流动进行系统性的比较研究具有重要的理论价值和现实意义。基于2000年、2010年、2020年3次全国人口普查,本研究揭示上述20年时间跨度中我国人口流动的城乡空间格局演化历程,初步发现:全国层面城市体系“顶端极化”和“中端固化”;中等规模县城加速崛起,成为县域城镇化核心载体;流动人口对顶端城市和县城贡献上升,对中等城市贡献削弱。在区域层面则聚焦主要流入地和流出地,探索总人口城乡分布及其演变、流动人口城乡分布特征、城镇体系差异,以及市、镇流动人口演变规律。进一步从经济动力机制、制度变迁机制和社会文化机制3个方面,探索背后的成因机制,并以此为依据展望未来研究议题。

     

    Abstract: The emergence of new trends and policy propositions such as ’in-situ urbanization’ and ’countylevel urbanization’ has endowed systematic comparative research on China’s urban-rural population mobility between 2000 and 2020 with significant theoretical value and practical relevance. Based on the national population censuses of 2000, 2010, and 2020, this study reveals the evolutionary trajectory of urban-rural spatial patterns in population mobility over this two-decade period. Preliminary findings indicate three national-level phenomena: intensified ’polarization at the apex’ and ’ossification in the mid-tier’ of China’s urban hierarchy; accelerated ascendance of medium-sized county seats as core platforms for county-level urbanization; and increased demographic contributions from migrant populations to both apex cities and county towns, contrasted with diminished contributions to mid-sized cities. At the regional scale, the analysis concentrates on primary population inflow and outflow areas, investigating four dimensions: spatiotemporal evolution of urban-rural population distribution, spatial characteristics of migrant populations, disparities in urban system structures, and differentiated migration patterns across cities and towns. The study further explores causal mechanisms through three analytical frameworks-economic dynamics, institutional evolution, and socio-cultural drivers-while proposing future research directions informed by these findings.

     

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