Abstract: In the context of the continuous expansion of megacities, peripheral counties simultaneously shoulder the dual responsibilities of industrial relocation and ecological security. However, it remains unverified empirically whether economic growth inevitably leads to the degradation of ecological resilience in such regions. This study takes Huadu District, Guangzhou City, Guangdong Province as a representative case and constructs a multi-model framework by integrating SD, PLUS, InVEST, and CCD models to evaluate and simulate ecosystem services, economic development, and their coupling coordination relationships from 2001 to 2035.The results indicate that from 2001 to 2024, the continuous expansion of construction land led to a decline in ecological functions such as water retention and habitat quality, with the ecological index dropping from 0.973 to 0.140. While economic levels rose, the growth momentum has weakened, causing the coupling coordination degree (CCD) to decline from ‘highly coordinated' to ‘disordered'. Future simulations suggest that current ‘Grain for Green' policies can promote ecological restoration, potentially restoring the coordination degree to a ‘good' level by 2035; however, the restoration of fundamental ecological functions is still limited. Obstacle factors show a shift from ‘economic' to ‘ecological', and future development will be jointly restricted by GDP growth rates and habitat quality. This research provides decision-making support for peripheral counties of megacities to avoid development pitfalls and achieve a resilient transformation between ecology and the economy.