基于系统动力学的滇池绿道环境效应模拟

System Dynamics-based Simulation of Environmental Effects of the Dianchi Lake Ring Greenway

  • 摘要: 滇池流域长期存在污染负荷累积和生态恢复缓慢等问题,环湖绿道作为连接沿湖小城镇、村庄和湖滨生态空间的绿色基础设施,在污染削减、生态缓冲、旅游发展和社区振兴中具有复合效应。本文基于系统动力学方法构建滇池环湖绿道环境效应模型,设置维持现状、社会优先、经济优先、环境优先和协同治理5种情景,模拟2012—2035年不同情景下污染控制、生态修复和社会经济指标变化。结果表明,环境优先和协同治理情景在入湖污染控制和生态指标改善方面表现较好,协同治理情景在兼顾生态修复、旅游发展和居民满意度指数提升方面具有相对优势。环湖绿道可通过“植被恢复—生态拦截—污染输入减少”路径影响流域环境治理,并通过旅游收益留存、管护就业和社区参与促进沿线镇村民生改善。研究可为高原湖泊流域小城镇协同推进生态保护、旅游发展和社区振兴提供参考。

     

    Abstract: The Dianchi Lake Basin faces persistent pollutant accumulation and slow ecological recovery. As a form of lakeside green infrastructure that connects small towns, villages, and ecological spaces, the Dianchi Lake ring greenway has multiple effects on pollution mitigation, ecological buffering, tourism development, and community revitalization. Based on system dynamics, this study develops an environmental effect model of the ring greenway and simulates changes in pollution control, ecological restoration, and socioeconomic indicators in the Dianchi Lake Basin from 2012 to 2035 under five scenarios: status quo, social priority, economic priority, environmental priority, and coordinated governance. The results show that the environmental priority and coordinated governance scenarios perform better in controlling pollutant inflow and improving ecological indicators, while the coordinated governance scenario shows a relative advantage in balancing ecological restoration, tourism development, and resident satisfaction. The ring greenway affects the environmental governance of the basin through the pathway of 'vegetation restoration-ecological interception-pollution input reduction', and further supports livelihood improvement in adjacent towns and villages through tourism revenue retention, maintenance-related employment, and community participation. The findings provide a reference for small towns in plateau lake basins to coordinate ecological protection, tourism development, and community revitalization.

     

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